Independent research & plain answers on…Markets, Inflation, Rates, Currencies, Recessions, Questions
Jump ahead:
Notes from
the margin
Research on finance, markets and the global economy. Plain answers to the questions people actually ask. And every Sunday, a map of the week ahead.
The Week Ahead · 9 – 13 November 2026
Hot inflation puts a bigger Fed hike on the table
Core inflation hit 0.3% again, the level that would make Fed Governor Waller consider a half-point hike on 9 December. AI earnings and $90 oil fill out the week.
Things to watch
- Is a 50bp Fed hike back on the table? Core inflation hit 0.3% again on Tuesday, the level Fed Governor Waller said would make him consider a half-point hike on 9 December. Markets already priced roughly 80% odds of a hike before the release.
- AI earnings: CoreWeave, Nebius, Cisco and Applied Materials will show whether AI spending is still strong after last week's tech sell-off.
- Oil: still around $90 a barrel on Middle East supply worries, keeping energy inflation sticky.
Key dates
Tuesday10
- 14:30USInflationHigh impact
US CPI (October)
Thursday12
- 08:00UKGrowthHigh impact
UK Q3 GDP
- 22:00USEarningsHigh impact
Cisco and Applied Materials
Friday13
- 14:30USInflationHigh impact
US PPI (October)
Findings & papers
Research
The yield curve, explained without the jargon
Why a simple line connecting short and long interest rates has become the most watched recession signal in finance, and why it is not a crystal ball.
Gold and real yields, an old relationship under strain
For years gold moved almost tick-for-tick against inflation-adjusted bond yields. Then central banks started buying, and the relationship started to break down.
What a strong dollar does to everyone else
The US dollar is the world's invoicing, borrowing and reserve currency. When it strengthens, the effects ripple far beyond America's borders.
Asked and answered
Questions
What is the underlying value for gold?
Unlike stocks or bonds, gold does not generate income, meaning its intrinsic value cannot be calculated through conventional cash flow valuation.
What determines interest rates?
Interest rates are determined by central bank monetary policy, inflation expectations, economic growth and the supply and demand for credit.
How can a country increase its GDP over time?
A country can increase its GDP by expanding its productive capacity through investment in infrastructure, machinery, education, healthcare and technological innovation.
About
Why this exists
Markets decide what a loan costs, what savings are worth and what a week's shopping comes to. Almost nobody is taught how they work. This site is a place to ask how, and why, and to follow the answer wherever the evidence goes.
Read the idea behind it