From the archive · 12 – 16 October 2026
US inflation and the start of earnings season
US CPI on Wednesday is the main event, with a hot print able to revive bets on an October hike. Around it, the big banks open earnings season, ASML and TSMC report, and finance ministers and central bankers gather in Bangkok.
Published Sunday 11 October 2026
Things to watch
- US CPI on Wednesday. Headline is forecast at 3.6% y/y (from 3.4%) and core at 2.5% (from 2.4%).
- Earnings season opens with the big US banks on Tuesday, then spreads to regional banks, healthcare and industry by Friday.
- ASML and TSMC. Orders, margins and capex guidance are the read on AI chip demand.
- Oil. OPEC and the IEA both publish outlooks, with Middle East energy prices already elevated.
The calendar
Monday12
- All dayUS / CanadaOther
US Columbus Day and Canadian Thanksgiving
US bond market is closed; US stocks trade normally.
- All weekGlobalPolicy
IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok
Finance ministers and central bank governors in one place, so expect a steady flow of headlines.
- 11:45GlobalOther
Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences
The last Nobel of the season.
- After Paris close (call 18:00)FranceEarnings
LVMH Q3 revenue
The bellwether for luxury demand; several brokers cut targets going in.
- IndiaInflation
India CPI (September) and HCLTech results
Start of Indian IT earnings season.
Tuesday13
- Before US openUSEarningsHigh impact
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo
Earnings season opens. JPMorgan EPS is expected around $5.90.
- Before US openUSEarnings
Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth
First big healthcare reads of the quarter.
- 04:00GlobalGrowth
IMF World Economic Outlook (plus Global Financial Stability Report)
New global growth and inflation forecasts.
- GlobalOther
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
Demand and supply outlook, with Middle East energy prices already elevated.
- 03:30AustraliaCentral bank
RBA minutes
Detail on September's hike to 4.60%, the fourth this year.
- London morningUKEarnings
BP Q3 trading statement; Rio Tinto Q3 operations update
Early signals on energy and mining earnings.
- 08:00GermanyInflation
German final CPI (September)
Confirms the flash reading.
- 16:00USGrowth
US existing home sales; NFIB small business index
Existing home sales forecast 3.96m. Housing under higher rates. Fed's Waller, Barkin and Collins also speak.
Wednesday14
- 14:30USInflationHigh impact
US CPI (September)
The main event. Headline is forecast at 3.6% y/y (from 3.4%), core 2.5% (from 2.4%). A hot print could revive bets on an October hike.
- 03:30ChinaInflation
China CPI and PPI (September)
CPI is expected around 0.9–1.0% (from 0.8%), PPI unchanged at 3.8%.
- MorningChinaGrowth
China trade balance (September)
Read on exports and global demand.
- Before European openNetherlandsEarnings
ASML Q3 results
Revenue is expected near €11.5bn; orders and 2027 signals matter most.
- Before US openUSEarnings
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock
Second wave of financials.
- 20:00USCentral bank
Fed Beige Book
Anecdotal read on hiring, spending and pricing before the Fed meets.
- GlobalOther
IEA Oil Market Report
The second major oil outlook of the week.
- Through the dayGlobalCentral bank
Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem speak; IMF Fiscal Monitor
Rate signals from the ECB, BoE and Bank of Canada.
Thursday15
- Before US openTaiwanEarningsHigh impact
TSMC Q3 results
The AI chip gauge. EPS is expected around $4.46–4.48; margins and capex guidance are the focus.
- 14:30USGrowthHigh impact
US retail sales (September)
Forecast +0.3% after a strong August of more than 1%.
- 14:30USInflation
US PPI (September)
Forecast +0.5% m/m; annual rate seen at 5.3% (from 5.4%).
- 14:30USJobs
US jobless claims, Philly Fed, Empire State surveys
Claims forecast 195k; Philly Fed 26.5 (from 37.8).
- 08:00UKGrowth
UK GDP (August)
A contraction is expected after +0.4% in July.
- 02:30AustraliaJobs
Australia jobs (September)
Forecast +20k, unemployment steady at 4.6%.
- Through the dayUS / EuropeEarnings
Charles Schwab, BNY, PNC, US Bancorp, Prologis; Ericsson, Nordea
Alcoa, Interactive Brokers and J.B. Hunt report after the close. Broadens the earnings picture beyond the big banks.
Friday16
- 05:30USCentral bankHigh impact
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks
His first comments after CPI, and among the last before the Fed's pre-meeting quiet period.
- 11:00EurozoneInflation
Eurozone final CPI (September)
Confirms the flash estimate.
- 14:30 / 15:15USGrowth
US import prices; industrial production
Production forecast +0.4% (from 0.0%).
- Before US openUSEarnings
Truist, M&T, Regions, Citizens, Travelers
Regional bank credit quality and insurance.